Kudiwa kwakasiyana-siyana uye kubuda kwezvipfeko zvepamusoro mumisika yakasiyana kuri kuita kuti musika wayo uve mukuru kubva pamadhora mabhiriyoni makumi matatu nemasere ($38 bhiriyoni) kusvika pamadhora mabhiriyoni makumi manomwe nemapfumbamwe ($79 bhiriyoni) panosvika gore ra2030. Kukura uku kunotsigirwa nezvinodiwa zvakasiyana-siyana nematambudziko, asi kunoramba kuri kukwira. Kuchinja-chinja uku kunobvumira zvipfeko zvepamusoro kuchengetedza hunyanzvi huripo uye kugadziriswa, zvichizadzisa zvinodiwa zvemisika yakasiyana maererano nezvinobuda, zvinodiwa zvehunyanzvi, uye mitengo yekutengesa yepakati.
Zvisinei, kuchinja uku kunounzawo njodzi kuindasitiri yekutakura zvinhu yepamusoro apo mimwe misika inotarisana nekuderera kana kushanduka-shanduka. Muna 2024, kurongedza zvinhu kwepamusoro kunobatsira nekukura nekukurumidza kwemusika wedata center, nepo kudzoka kwemisika mikuru senge nharembozha kuchinonoka.
Kupakira kwemhando yepamusoro ndeimwe yezvikamu zvikuru zviri muchikamu chepasi rose che semiconductor supply. Izvi zvinokonzerwa nekubatanidzwa kwemabhizinesi akasiyana-siyana kunze kweOSAT (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test), kukosha kwezvematongerwo enyika muindasitiri, uye basa rayo guru muzvigadzirwa zvinoshanda zvakanyanya.
Gore rega rega rinounza zvipingamupinyi zvaro zvinochinja mamiriro ehurongwa hwepamusoro hwekupakira. Muna 2024, zvinhu zvakakosha zvakawanda zvinopesvedzera shanduko iyi: kushomeka kwesimba, matambudziko egoho, zvinhu zvitsva nezvishandiso zvitsva, zvinodiwa pakushandisa mari, mitemo yezvematongerwo enyika uye zvirongwa, kudiwa kwakanyanya mumisika chaiyo, mwero uri kuchinja, vatsva vanotanga, uye kuchinja kwezvinhu zvakagadzirwa.
Masangano matsva akawanda akabuda kuti agadzirise matambudziko ekutengesa zvinhu pamwe chete nekukurumidza. Matekinoroji makuru epamusoro ekurongedza ari kupihwa marezenisi kune vamwe vatori vechikamu kuti vatsigire shanduko iri nyore kuenda kumamodeli matsva ebhizinesi uye kugadzirisa zvipingamupinyi zvekushandisa. Kugadziriswa kwemachip kuri kusimbiswa zvakanyanya kukurudzira mashandisirwo echip akawanda, kutsvaga misika mitsva, uye kuderedza mitoro yekudyara yemunhu mumwe nemumwe. Muna 2024, nyika itsva, makambani, zvivakwa, uye mitsara yekutanga zviri kutanga kuzvipira pakurongedza kwepamusoro-tsika icharamba iripo kusvika muna 2025.
Kurongedza kwepamusoro hakusati kwasvika pakuzara kwetekinoroji. Pakati pa2024 na2025, kurongedza kwepamusoro kwakabudirira zvikuru, uye ruzivo rwetekinoroji rwuri kukura kusvika rwava neshanduro itsva dzakasimba dzematekinoroji eAP aripo nemapuratifomu, akadai seIntel's latest generation EMIB neFoveros. Kurongedza kweCPO (Chip-on-Package Optical Devices) systems kuri kuwanawo kutariswa neindasitiri, netekinoroji itsva dziri kugadzirwa kuti dzikwezve vatengi uye dziwedzere kubuda.
Zvishandiso zvemasekete zvakabatana zvine hunyanzvi zvinomirira rimwe indasitiri rine hukama hwakasimba, richigovana marongero enzira, misimboti yekugadzira pamwe chete, uye zvinodiwa nezvishandiso nekurongedza kwepamusoro.
Kuwedzera kune matekinoroji aya makuru, matekinoroji akawanda "asingaonekwe" ari kutungamira kusiyanisa uye hunyanzvi hwekurongedza kwepamusoro: mhinduro dzemagetsi, matekinoroji ekubatanidza, manejimendi ekupisa, zvinhu zvitsva (zvakaita segirazi uye zvechizvarwa chinotevera), ma "interconnects" epamusoro, uye mafomu matsva emidziyo/maturusi. Kubva kumagetsi emagetsi efoni uye evatengi kusvika kunzvimbo dzeruzivo rwekugadzira nedata, kurongedza kwepamusoro kuri kugadzirisa matekinoroji ayo kuti aenderane nezvinodiwa nemusika wega wega, zvichiita kuti zvigadzirwa zvayo zvechizvarwa chinotevera zvikwanisewo kugutsa zvinodiwa nemusika.
Musika wepamusoro-soro wekurongedza unotarisirwa kusvika mabhiriyoni masere emadhora muna 2024, netarisiro yekupfuura mabhiriyoni makumi maviri nemasere emadhora panosvika gore ra2030, zvichiratidza huwandu hwekuwedzera kwegore negore (CAGR) hwe23% kubva muna 2024 kusvika 2030. Panyaya yemisika yekupedzisira, musika mukuru wekurongedza une mashandiro akanaka ndiwo "kutaurirana nezvivakwa," izvo zvakawana mari inodarika 67% muna 2024. Unotevera zvakanyanya "musika wemafoni nevatengi," unova musika uri kukura nekukurumidza une CAGR ye50%.
Panyaya yemayuniti ekurongedza, mayuniti emhando yepamusoro anotarisirwa kuona CAGR ye33% kubva muna 2024 kusvika 2030, ichikwira kubva pamayuniti angangoita bhiriyoni imwe muna 2024 kusvika pamayuniti anopfuura mabhiriyoni mashanu panosvika 2030. Kukura uku kwakakosha kunokonzerwa nekudiwa kwakanaka kwemayuniti emhando yepamusoro, uye avhareji yemutengo wekutengesa wakakwira zvakanyanya kana tichienzanisa nemayuniti asina kunyanya kukwira, zvichikonzerwa nekuchinja kwemutengo kubva kumberi kuenda kumashure nekuda kwemapuratifomu e2.5D ne3D.
3D stacked memory (HBM, 3DS, 3D NAND, uye CBA DRAM) ndiyo inonyanya kukosha, inotarisirwa kuve nechikamu chinodarika 70% chemusika panosvika gore ra2029. Mapuratifomu ari kukura nekukurumidza anosanganisira CBA DRAM, 3D SoC, active Si interposers, 3D NAND stacks, uye embedded Si bridges.
Zvipingamupinyi zvekupinda mukutengesa zvinhu zvepamusoro zviri kuramba zvichikwira, nemakambani makuru ekugadzira mawafer nemaIDM zvichikanganisa nzvimbo yepamusoro yekurongedza zvinhu nehunyanzvi hwavo hwepamberi. Kushandiswa kwetekinoroji yekubatanidza zvinhu zvehybrid kunoita kuti mamiriro acho ave akaoma kune vatengesi veOSAT, sezvo avo chete vane hunyanzvi hwekugadzira mawafer nezvinhu zvakawanda vanogona kutsungirira kurasikirwa kukuru kwegoho uye mari yakawanda.
Panosvika gore ra2024, vagadziri vememory vanomiririrwa neYangtze Memory Technologies, Samsung, SK Hynix, naMicron vachatonga, vachibata 54% yemusika wepamusoro wemapakeji, sezvo 3D stacked memory ichipfuura mamwe mapuratifomu maererano nemari inowanikwa, kubuda kweyuniti, uye kuwanda kwewafer. Kutaura zvazviri, huwandu hwekutenga memory packaging hunodarika hwelogic packaging. TSMC iri pamberi ne35% yemusika, ichiteverwa neYangtze Memory Technologies ne20% yemusika wese. Vatsva vakaita saKioxia, Micron, SK Hynix, naSamsung vanotarisirwa kupinda mumusika we3D NAND nekukurumidza, vachitora musika. Samsung iri panhamba yechitatu ne16% yemugove, ichiteverwa neSK Hynix (13%) naMicron (5%). Sezvo 3D stacked memory ichiramba ichichinja uye zvigadzirwa zvitsva zvichitangwa, migove yemusika yevagadziri ava inotarisirwa kukura zvakanaka. Intel iri kutevera ne6%.
Vagadziri vepamusoro veOSAT vakaita seAdvanced Semiconductor Manufacturing (ASE), Siliconware Precision Industries (SPIL), JCET, Amkor, naTF vachiri kubatanidzwa mumabasa ekupedzisira ekurongedza nekuyedza. Vari kuedza kuwana mugove wemusika nemhinduro dzepamusoro-soro dzekurongedza dzakavakirwa pa ultra-high-definition fan-out (UHD FO) uye mold interposer. Chimwe chinhu chakakosha kushanda pamwe chete nemakambani makuru anogadzira zvinhu pamwe nevagadziri vemidziyo yakabatanidzwa (IDMs) kuti vave nechokwadi chekuti vanotora chikamu mumabasa aya.
Nhasi uno, kuwanikwa kwemhando yepamusoro yekurongedza zvinhu kunonyanya kuvimba netekinoroji dzepamberi (FE), nekubatana kwehybrid kuri kubuda senzira itsva. BESI, kuburikidza nekushanda pamwe chete neAMAT, inoita basa guru mukuita uku kutsva, ichipa michina kumakambani makuru akadai seTSMC, Intel, neSamsung, ayo ese ari kukwikwidzana pamusika. Vamwe vatengesi vemidziyo, vakaita seASMPT, EVG, SET, neSuiss MicroTech, pamwe neShibaura neTEL, zvinhu zvakakoshawo muchikamu chekutengesa.
Imwe nzira huru yetekinoroji pamapuratifomu ese epamusoro-soro ekurongedza, zvisinei nerudzi rwayo, kudzikiswa kweinterconnect pitch—maitiro ane chekuita nethrough-silicon vias (TSVs), TMVs, microbumps, uye kunyange hybrid bonding, iyo yekupedzisira yave mhinduro yakanyanya. Uyezve, via diameters uye wafer thicknesses zvinotarisirwawo kudzikira.
Kufambira mberi uku kwetekinoroji kwakakosha pakubatanidza machipisi nemachipset akaomarara kuti atsigire kugadziriswa kwedata nekukurumidza uye kutapurirana ukuwo achivimbisa kuti simba rinoshandiswa zvishoma uye kurasikirwa kwaro, zvichizogonesa kubatanidzwa kwakanyanya uye bandwidth kune zvigadzirwa zvemangwana.
Kubatanidza kwe3D SoC hybrid kunoita senzira huru yetekinoroji yekurongedza kwechizvarwa chinotevera, sezvo ichigonesa mapitch madiki ekubatanidza uku ichiwedzera nzvimbo yese yeSoC. Izvi zvinogonesa mikana yakaita sekuisa machipset kubva kuSoC die yakaparadzaniswa, zvichiita kuti kurongedza kwakabatana kwakasiyana-siyana. TSMC, netekinoroji yayo ye3D Fabric, yave mutungamiriri mukurongedza kwe3D SoIC ichishandisa kusanganisa kwehybrid. Uyezve, kubatanidzwa kwechip-to-wafer kunotarisirwa kutanga nenhamba diki yeHBM4E 16-layer DRAM stacks.
Chipset uye kubatanidzwa kwakasiyana-siyana ndeimwe nzira huru inosimudzira kushandiswa kweHEP packaging, nezvigadzirwa zviripo pari zvino pamusika zvinoshandisa nzira iyi. Semuenzaniso, Intel's Sapphire Rapids inoshandisa EMIB, Ponte Vecchio inoshandisa Co-EMIB, uye Meteor Lake inoshandisa Foveros. AMD ndeimwe kambani huru yakashandisa nzira iyi yetekinoroji muzvigadzirwa zvayo, zvakaita seRyzen neEPYC processors yechizvarwa chechitatu, pamwe ne3D chipset architecture muMI300.
Nvidia inotarisirwawo kushandisa dhizaini iyi yechipset muchikamu chayo chinotevera cheBlackwell. Sezvakataurwa nevatengesi vakuru vakaita seIntel, AMD, neNvidia, kuti mamwe mapakeji ane die dzakaparadzaniswa kana dzakadzokororwa anotarisirwa kuwanikwa gore rinouya. Uyezve, nzira iyi inotarisirwa kushandiswa mumapurogiramu epamusoro eADAS mumakore anotevera.
Kambani huru ndeyekubatanidza mapuratifomu e2.5D ne3D mupakeji imwe chete, ayo vamwe vari muindasitiri iyi vari kutoti mapakeji e3.5D. Nokudaro, tinotarisira kuona kubuda kwemapakeji anobatanidza machipisi e3D SoC, mainterposer e2.5D, mabhiriji esilicon akasungirirwa, uye ma optics akasungirirwa pamwe chete. Mapuratifomu matsva e2.5D ne3D ekurongedza ari pedyo, zvichiwedzera kuoma kwekupakeji kweHEP.
Nguva yekutumira: Nyamavhuvhu-11-2025